Basic-Fit, smooth sailing. The Swiss bank Credit Suisse estimates that after the return to normal in the fitness sector, the chain of gyms at low price it will have a compound annual growth rate (Cagr) of 20% until 2026, when it will stand at 32.3%, above pre-pandemic figures. Thus, the chain will reach a turnover of 1,889.9 million euros and a profit of 157.7 million euros in four years.
The leader estimates that the company’s revenue in 2022 will be 839.4 million euros, while in 2023 the amount will be 1,159.8 million. Thus, in 2024, the turnover would increase to 1,402.7 million and in 2025, to 1,651.1 million euros, when the profit will be 129.4 million euros.. As for the adjusted net profit, in 2022 it will be 40.53 million, in 2023 it will be 360.2 million and in 2024 it will be 439 million..
According to a report by the entity, the growth will occur after going from 1,015 facilities in 2021 to 2,254 centers in 2026, in a plan in which Spain is relevant. Additionally, he sees the average sales value will increase, supported by the increase in premium partners and market opportunities through mergers and acquisitions. “derivatives of smaller or weaker operators unable to cope with the consequences of Covid-19”.
Basic-Fit will have 2,254 centers in 2026, according to Credit Suisse estimates
In the Spanish market, the report indicates that in 2025, 15% of the population will be members of a gym (around 7.2 million users), while in 2030 this figure will increase by 2.5 points, to 8.5 million members.
“The company is well positioned in a strong health and wellness industry, with a presence in five markets and an expanding customer base; we expect a maximum increase of 40% in the average revenue per user”, underlines the entity.
According to him, the Dutch-based gym chain is improve your profitability, although well below the target of 50% in the margins of a mature club, due to “its aggressive growth plan”. It should also be remembered that Basic-Fit plans to be the main operator in the Spanish market in 2022, where it competes with Altafit, VivaGym, McFit, Dir and Anytime Fitness, its main rival on a European scale.
Credit Suisse sees outdoor sports and resurgence of Covid-19 as potential threats
On the other hand, Credit Suisse assures that there are risks such as the increase in outdoor sports and underlines that “Basic-Fit has a high operating leverage and depends largely on the strong progression of affiliation”.
Likewise, he assures that aspects related to access to financing or lower than expected cash generation could limit the company’s ability to grow, in addition to a seasonal resurgence of Covid-19. On the other hand, he also reminds that the expansion is subject to execution risks and that there is uncertainty due to consumer confidence and cost inflation, as well as supply chain problems. supply and rising energy prices.
Despite this context, Credit Suisse reaffirms that Basic-Fit, “will be able to improve its margins even in the current inflationary environment, despite a fixed mix in the short to medium term”. The bank argues that the company has improved its leases with the pandemic and that energy inflation will have an “insignificant” impact on the company’s cost structure, as it represents a “relatively small” part of the costs of the company.
The Dutch sports hall chain ended the 2021 financial year with a turnover down 10%, to 340.7 million euros and increased its losses by 20%, to 150 million euros, marked by the closures in its main market (France), where it has more than half of its total centers (528 out of a total of 1,015 gymnasiums). In Spain, it closed the 2021 financial year (ending December 31) with revenues of 21.2 million euros in the Spanish market, which represents an increase of 30.8% compared to the previous year.